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The VA Primary – A Bellwether For the Country?

The Commonwealth of Virginia has a reputation as an electoral bellwether and its primary election on June 17 will be closely watched for clues as to both the outcome of November’s race, and how the 30+ state AG elections may play out in 2026. In this episode of State AG Pulse, former VA Chief Deputy Chuck Slemp handicaps the Democratic candidates for VA AG and lets associate Grace Garver in on his predictions for who will win the November race and what it may mean for VA residents.

PRODUCED IN COLLABORATION WITH:

Christopher Allen Member, Executive Producer

Suzette Bradbury, Director of Practice Group Marketing (State AG Group)

Elisabeth Hill Hodish, Policy Analyst

Legal Internet Solutions Incorporated

Transcript

Ann-Marie Luciano

Welcome to the fifth season of State AG Pulse. In this season, we’ll be digging into the weekly State AG news to bring you our insights on the impact of state attorneys general across a broad range of industry sectors. From technology to healthcare and telecommunications to consumer financial services, State AGs has continued to wield extraordinary influence, not only in their own states, but also on the national stage. Now onto this week’s episode.

Chuck Slemp

My name is Chuck Slemp and I’m a member of Cozen O’Connor’s State Attorney General Practice. Today I’m joined by Grace Garver, an associate also in our state AG practice group. Grace, thanks for joining me.

Grace Garver

I’m happy to be here Chuck. Thank you for having me.

Chuck Slemp

On today’s episode, Grace and I are going to be discussing the upcoming Democrat primary and then the general election in the race for attorney general in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Grace, can you give us just a little bit of background as we kick things off here on where things stand with the AG elections this year?

Grace Garver

Sure. Happy to do that, Chuck. So in general, 2025 is a relatively quiet year on the state AG election front. If you recall from last year, we had 10 state attorney general elections. And next year, there’s going to be 33. However, this year, there’s only going to be two in Virginia and New Jersey. So although this is something of an off year for state AG races, we did want to provide a look into what we might be expecting for Virginia’s race this year.

Chuck Slemp

And what’s interesting is that Virginia elects its attorney general. New Jersey, who also has an election this year, they don’t, right?

Grace Garver

No, they don’t, but the governor appoints their AG and he will be elected. So the next New Jersey AG is going to be dependent on an election of some sort.

Chuck Slemp

Those are great insights, Grace. Thank you for that.

Grace Garver

Thanks, Chuck. So before we really get into the nitty gritty here, I was wondering if maybe you could remind our listeners of your connections to the state of Virginia.

Chuck Slemp

Absolutely. Well, I am a lifelong resident of the Commonwealth of Virginia. I served as the chief deputy attorney general of Virginia under Attorney General Miyares. I’ve worked for four attorneys general over the course of 20 plus years here in the Commonwealth and work closely as chief deputy on the legal and policy teams across our state. Before that, I was elected twice as the Commonwealth’s attorney, similar to district attorney in the southwestern portion of the Commonwealth. And so I bring firsthand experience on how the AG’s office operates and what these elections really mean to Virginia citizens. And, Grace, what’s interesting is I’m looking at the ballot and I’m seeing all these people that I’ve known for years and they’re running for AG.

Grace Garver

So as you mentioned, we’re going to be having a primary on June 17th. Two Democrats will face off with each other heading into the election this November against Republican incumbent AG Jason Miyares. Chuck, you mentioned you know both of the candidates. Can you give us some background?

Chuck Slemp

Certainly. Now, the two prominent Democrats are running for office for the nomination for the Democrat Party. Henrico County Commonwealth’s attorney, Shannon Taylor, is one, and the other is delegate Jay Jones, or former delegate Jay Jones.

Grace Garver

So I know you have connections with both of these folks. So maybe let’s start with Shannon Taylor. Can you give us some insights into her background and maybe what some of her priorities in the campaign will be?

Chuck Slemp

Absolutely. So as a former Commonwealth’s Attorney, elected prosecutor myself, I know Shannon personally, she and I were elected the same year. So Shannon brings significant courtroom experience and prosecution experience, having served as the top prosecutor in a major suburban county around the Richmond area for over a decade. She’s endorsed by former AGs of Virginia, Mark Herring and Mary Sue Terry.

And she’s running as a seasoned legal professional with a record of upholding the rule of law. Now, Shannon, I know personally, I’ve worked with her on prosecution initiatives during my tenure as Commonwealth’s Attorney. So those are some insights about her candidacy.

Grace Garver

Awesome. And what about Jay Jones?

Chuck Slemp

Well, Jay brings legislative and policy experience. Now, he served in the House of Delegates, our lower legislative house in the General Assembly. He briefly worked in the Attorney General’s office in the District of Columbia. And over the course of his campaign, he’s focused on consumer protection and civil rights and economic justice issues. He’s received the backing of former governor of Virginia, Ralph Northam, the previous governor to our current governor, Glenn Youngkin.

I’ve known Jay for many years, have worked with him on opioid policy issues from his time in the legislature.

Grace Garver

Thank you, Chuck. So we’ve heard a little bit about these two candidates individually and their priorities. But do you think there are any similarities in their approaches to their campaign themes or what they might be pursuing as AG?

Chuck Slemp

Certainly, I’ve heard both of them speak very recently and they were on the stump and both of them giving speeches immediately after each other and their common theme is framing their campaign against or an opposition to Donald Trump and Trump era policies. They’re running against Trump and I think that’s relevant in this election cycle.

Grace Garver

Absolutely. Something else that might be relevant to this election cycle and is a little bit specific to the state of Virginia. Virginia currently has a pretty lengthy early voting period in its elections.

Chuck Slemp

That’s right. The laws were changed a few years ago to extend election day out for a lengthy period of over a month before election day, you’re conducting the election, which is kind of interesting. Early voting, it’s not just in the general election, it’s also in primary elections. And so for this situation, the primary is June 17th.

The primary election though, the voting, the early voting actually started on May 2nd and runs through June 14th. By looking at that, if you didn’t vote between May 2nd and June 14th, you’ve got to wait until election day on June 17th to vote at the primary. And we have open primaries, we don’t have registered parties in the Commonwealth. So it is…you don’t have to go and say, I’m a registered Democrat and I’m voting in the Democrat primary. So the campaigns have had to engage across the state and energize their base over a long window of time. And both candidates have been running for a long time, have been announced candidates for over a year. So the kind of turnout that is needed in a primary election often favors candidates who have strong grassroots operations or high name recognition. And in lower turnout elections, like primaries like this one, mobilizing voters early in key areas of the Commonwealth is important. Jones is from the Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach, Norfolk area. Taylor is from the Greater Richmond Metropolitan area. And so neither of them are reside in Northern Virginia, which is obviously high population voter rich region. And so I think that’s going to make the difference in this race.

Grace Garver

So you just mentioned that the early voting period may benefit candidates with a stronger grassroots operation and folks with higher name recognition. Are you able to give any commentary on between the two Democratic candidates, know, who you think might have those qualities?

Chuck Slemp

That’s a tough one. And I think it depends on where you are. And I kind of highlighted that just a little bit. Of course, Taylor has higher name recognition in Richmond and in prosecution circles. Jones, obviously, in the Hampton Roads region. I think it’s to be determined. I’m not going to wager on this one.

Grace Garver

It’ll be interesting to see how things turn out on June 17th.

Chuck Slemp

Indeed.

Grace Garver

So turning now to November, whichever candidate wins on June 17th, they’ll be taking on incumbent AG Jason Miyares in the general. Having worked for the incumbent AG for several years and knowing him personally, can you give us an overview on what his priorities as AG have been?

Chuck Slemp

Okay, so I’m going to say this real clear for our listeners. It is no secret. I’ve known A.G. Miyares for many, years. We worked together at the AG’s office over 20 years ago. He’s been a legislative leader in the House of Delegates and since becoming AG he’s focused heavily on public safety and consumer protection and fighting federal overreach. I’m a little biased here because I worked for him and I worked with him closely and I know him well. So he launched initiatives like Operation Ceasefire to reduce gun violence. He led litigation to protect children online. He took stances on immigration enforcement. He’s emphasized transparency and accountability in institutions like high profile cases like the UVA shooting. And he’s had numerous public service awareness campaigns like the opioid settlements and like the One Pill Can Kill campaign, which is targeting fentanyl awareness. And so those things, it’s hard to beat an incumbent, but I think all of those things together make Miyares a very strong candidate running into November. And that’s not just because I worked for him. I’m seeing that he is a very strong candidate.

Grace Garver

He’s definitely been a leader on a lot of issues. So going into November though, do you think he will shift his focus to any new areas or do you think he’s going to hold steady on what he’s been doing for the last four years?

Chuck Slemp

I know Jason, and I know he’s, he is consistent in not only his beliefs, but in his action. I believe that he will continue to focus on law and order themes and work on and lean into some of his work on the social media harms and protecting minor cases. I think he’s going to emphasize some of the cases that he’s done in consumer protection. I really think that he’s going to embrace what has been his legacy in the office and that is working very hard to reduce crime and violent crime across the Commonwealth through partnership with the U.S. Attorneys Offices and his partnership with local Commonwealths Attorneys Offices as well.

Grace Garver

And can you give us some insights on what you expect his opponent, either way it turns out, you know might focus on against him in the general?

Chuck Slemp

Okay, so again, not taking, not predicting here who’s going to win, but if it’s Shannon Taylor, I would expect her to contrast her courtroom experience and try to focus on her years as the elected prosecutor, highlighting issues. I mean, she’s talked about reproductive rights and prosecuting other specific cases. If Jay Jones wins, I think he’s going to focus on civil rights and consumer protection and the work that he did in the DC AG’s office. Both, I think, are going to try to focus on federal issues. If I was wagering, I think that’s where they go.

Grace Garver

So can you pull out your crystal ball and tell us who you think might win the general election in November?

Chuck Slemp

Well, I’m going to start with this totally unbiased prediction. Jason Miyares wins in a landslide. No, I say that, of course, having had the privilege of working closely with him and I know what kind of leader he is and public servant he is, first hand, the energy and focus and principle that he’s had as AG. He’s a tireless campaigner. And this is me analyzing it as putting on the analyst hat here with name ID as a strong incumbent, especially in Southwestern Virginia, Central Virginia. And what’s interesting, Miyares is from Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads is his home area. That’s where he represented in the House of Delegates. Those are areas that Republican has to win and has to win strong. I think he will run strong in each of those. Now that said, there are headwinds. Virginia remains a purple state and high Democrat turnout, especially if driven by a competitive top of ticket race between the Democrat presumptive nominee for governor, Abigail Spanberger, who’s in the US House, and our current Lieutenant Governor, Winsom Sears, that could tighten the race. I think a Democrat challenger who bridges the gap between those things could make it competitive. But still, again, my analyst hat here, I think…Miyares enters the race as a clear front runner. It’s hard to beat an incumbent. I know I’ve said that a couple of times, but especially somebody with a strong record over four years. And Miyares has done a really good job of avoiding pitfalls and being a strong advocate on issues that matter to Virginians and matter nationally: consumer protection and public safety. And I think it’s going to be hard to beat. So I joked at the beginning, Miyares wins. I do think that it’s going to be hard to beat him this November.

Grace Garver

Fair enough. So depending on the outcome here in November, what do you think it might mean either way for Virginia residents and business owners?

Chuck Slemp

Well, you know, the outcome could shape everything from how the Commonwealth litigates against the federal government to how it aggressively pursues data privacy cases or environmental enforcement or other regulatory actions. The former attorney general, the attorney general prior to Miyares, was Mark Herring. And Mark Herring used to say that he championed turning the attorney general’s office into a progressive powerhouse.

I think for businesses, a Democrat AG, what that means is it might be that the AG prioritize workplace and consumer protections, while Miyares would continue likely emphasizing business-friendly environment with strong law and order overlay.

Grace Garver

So as I mentioned earlier, this is something of an off year for state AG elections. We talked a little bit about how this election could affect the state of Virginia. But given that there’s going to be over 30 state AG elections next year, do you think the outcome of this election might have an impact on what we see next year nationally in terms of the state AG landscape?

Chuck Slemp

I think Virginia is often a bellwether. It’s how we’ve been looked at for years. If Democrats flip the seat, it could energize AG candidates nationally on issues such as taking on the Trump administration. If Miyares holds on, it could reaffirm the strength of the law and order messaging heading into 2026. Either way, I think AG races are becoming increasingly high profile and nationalized, which is important, but also obvious because the attorney general is arguably the most powerful public figure in every state. So Virginia could set the tone here nationally.

Grace Garver

So going into next year, we’re talking a little bit at the end here about next year’s races. Are there any other races that you think we got to keep our eye on next year that could have a big impact in terms of the state AG landscape?

Chuck Slemp

My gosh, there are so many, so many of these. And Grace, if we started down that rabbit hole, we would spend another 30 minutes or 30 days talking about it. Maybe that’s a great topic for the next or for an upcoming podcast.

Grace Garver

Fair enough. So before we wrap up, I do want to flag that Cozen O’Connor’s State AG Report website has a helpful tracker that users can use to keep track of all things state AG elections. So I definitely encourage our listeners to go there. And especially next year as we see so many races, should be a very helpful tool to keep track of all the different developments.

Chuck Slemp

Absolutely. you know, as businesses are listening to the podcast and our listeners are thinking about ways that they need to engage with AGs, working with Cozen O’Connor and looking at our, not only our State AG Report, but engaging with our team on what these elections, but other issues, mean is always valuable. And, Grace, thank you for joining me. And I guess I want to end with thank you to all of our listeners for tuning in. Grace, you pointed out a really, really important resource with the State AG Report. And businesses who are looking to try to remain engaged with attorneys general can rely on our Cozen O’Connor State AG team. I would encourage you to do so, and we’re here to serve. As always, thank you for listening to the podcast. And be sure to tune into our next episode, which I understand is going to be the final episode of season five of AG Pulse. Thanks for joining us.

Grace Garver

Thank you, Chuck.

Ann-Marie Luciano

You’ve been listening to State AG Pulse brought to you by Cozen O’Connor State AG Group and the State AG Report. Please leave us a five-star rating and of course tune in again in two weeks for our next episode.

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